Dan Loeb Third Point’s Q3 2016 Letter

基金大佬Dan Loeb Third Point’s Q3 2016给投资者的信, 还是很有指导意义.

简要摘要

“Third Point returned approximately 5% during the Third Quarter, outpacing the S&P 500 index by 1% and the CS Event-Driven index by 2%”
Q3回报5%

“This year, our research led us to transition away from the short China / long Dollar bet in mid-Q1 and go long energy credit and out-of-favor industrial commodities-related equities”
Q1 结束做空中国/做涨美元策略;开始做涨能源类和大商品

宏观现在关心如下几点:

“Understanding the global shift from monetary to fiscal policy”
全球货币政策到财政政策的转变

“Will fiscal expansion become the new world order? While it seems logical and timely, it is challenging considering the very high debt to GDP levels globally”
财政政策扩张有可能是新秩序,但高债务使得难一些

“While China has fallen temporarily off the radar screen, we still see reasons for concern. The stabilization in economic activity has come at the cost of increasing leverage and a potentially overheated housing market. Political change next year may also result in increased volatility.”
短期中国相关没什么交易机会,还是有顾虑:高杠杆,过热的房地产,政治方面

“We are clearly in the late stages of a business cycle following an eight year (tepid) expansion. While we do not forecast a financial crisis or a recession, a clear path to growth seems elusive. Consumers have been reducing spending and businesses have never regained their pre-2008 capital investment levels. We might soon long for 2% GDP growth.”
经济周期末期

“Earnings have stalled for a few years… earnings estimations may be inflated at these levels”
公司盈利停止增长和预期可能过高

详尽的请阅读原信.

third-point-q3-16

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