基金大佬Dan Loeb Third Point’s Q3 2016给投资者的信, 还是很有指导意义.
“Third Point returned approximately 5% during the Third Quarter, outpacing the S&P 500 index by 1% and the CS Event-Driven index by 2%”
“This year, our research led us to transition away from the short China / long Dollar bet in mid-Q1 and go long energy credit and out-of-favor industrial commodities-related equities”
“Understanding the global shift from monetary to fiscal policy”
“Will fiscal expansion become the new world order? While it seems logical and timely, it is challenging considering the very high debt to GDP levels globally”
“While China has fallen temporarily off the radar screen, we still see reasons for concern. The stabilization in economic activity has come at the cost of increasing leverage and a potentially overheated housing market. Political change next year may also result in increased volatility.”
“We are clearly in the late stages of a business cycle following an eight year (tepid) expansion. While we do not forecast a financial crisis or a recession, a clear path to growth seems elusive. Consumers have been reducing spending and businesses have never regained their pre-2008 capital investment levels. We might soon long for 2% GDP growth.”
“Earnings have stalled for a few years… earnings estimations may be inflated at these levels”